OSU Predicto: Buckeyes, Black Helmets and Beatings in Ross-Ade

OSU Predicto: Buckeyes, Black Helmets and Beatings in Ross-Ade

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2-4 in the Boilers' house since 2000. Losing a perfect season when ranked in the top ten in 2009. Danny Hope toying with Luke Fickell in 2011. You'd think the Ohio State Buckeyes would learn not to come knocking at the door of the Boilermakers. Things don't end well when you walk into our house. Or swagger into our house. (I'm looking at you, Terrell.)

Okay, enough of that, though, because in truth, games that have happened over the past 13 years mean very little in terms of tommorrow's tilt. Few guys in this game played any role in even the 2011 game, honestly, let alone things before that. It's rare that I would ever direct you to an OSU site, but for an excellent breakdown of this game from the opposition's eyes, give this 11W preview of the game a read. Level-headed, honest and accurate.

As we noted on the Handsome Hour earlier this week (and if you haven't listened yet, it's Friday -- go ahead and enjoy yourself), one fun thing about this game is that no matter how much of a blowout it looks like it should, even cocky Bucknut fans do have a little shred of fear showing. They don't know why their program has had trouble with Purdue, but they know they've seen this play enough times to know there can be a twist and it rarely goes according to form. Sadly, that may change this week, as the ol' "eye test" is something that appears to be accurate for this one.

On the subject of the eye test, Purdue will at least look pretty cool this week, as they'll don black helmets for the first time since November of 1990. Many grumpy alums who are older (and grumpier) than us will poo-poo the black-hat look as a reminder of the dark Fred Akers era, as Akers famously eshewed Purdue tradition and switched out the traditional gold helmets for the black ones. But let's remember that Purdue actually did wear black helmets from '49-'61, so the '89-'90 debacle is not the only precedent. My point? I guess just that if they get lambasted by 60 this weekend, don't blame the helmets. They're rarely the cause.

Let's get to the experts. Or, at least, these five guys.

Predicto Standings:

Cowards who pick Purdue to lose all the time: Boringly accurate
Panda: Hungry
J: Undefeated in school spirit

Purdue versus Ohio State. Ross-Ade Stadium, Saturday, 11/2, Noon, BTN. Line: OSU by 31

Tim says:

Do I really have to predict anything this week?  Here goes.  Purdue loses.  I think we'll probably all agree on that.  However, there are still 2 scenarios for this game.  The first, and most likely, is that Purdue loses by somewhere in the neighborhood of 55 points.  The second, and completely illogical yet somewhat plausible scenario is that Purdue loses in heartbreaking fashion by 3 points.  In scenario two it probably involves a fumble in the victory formation from the OSU 3 yard line with 8 seconds left that gets run back for a touchdown.  Yes.  That sounds about right.

OSU 70, Purdue 13

 

zlionsfan says:

No, I won't do a predicto.

Contractual what? But I didn't ... whatever. Fine. Urbs has looked at video from the games where Purdue cast a magic spell over Tresselball and its successors, and of video from last year's game, where Purdue only lost by 7 in Columbus. (Which sounds pretty good - and is, from our perspective - until you realize that they beat Michigan State by 1, Indiana by 3, Wisconsin by 7, and Michigan by 5.) And he has laughed.

Now, it's true that the Boilers have a two-game winning streak over Some Ohio University, and while that's their longest winning streak of any type in the series (they did go unbeaten in five straight during and after World War II, which I think means Ohio players didn't return from the war until the '50s), and while they are 7-12 against the Buckeyes at home, those are the type of meaningless stats that announcers throw at you when they try to pique your interest in a game that isn't going to be a game. Most of the players on both sides of that 2009 matchup are long gone, and not too many contributors in the 2011 game are still around. (Never mind the coaches involved ...)

The teams that will meet Saturday are clearly not in the same class. Similar underdog Boiler squads have put forth amazing performances, although in the last two Ross-Ade matchups, Purdue was roughly a 10-point and 7-point underdog. (Interestingly, the teams apparently hit the over in 2011. Go figure.) Combine those spreads and double them, and you'll get about what the current spread is ... and college football isn't like the pros, where big favorites generally don't cover for a number of reasons. Ohio is coming off a destruction of whoever that is in Pennsylvania, while Purdue's best effort of the season in their last game was also a game in which they scored no points.

Many things could happen Saturday. Most of them are bad. Do what you can, Boilers. I'll be wearing Old Gold and Black no matter the score.

Purdue

0

0

0

0

-

0

Ohio

14

17

21

13

-

65

 

Panda says:

Well, this one isn't going to be good for the home team. Logic says Purdue should lose big, but Purdue seems to put up a good fight against O$U. Don't expect this one to go quite as well for the gold and black. Purdue is outmatched in all levels on this one, but if OSU overlooks the Boilers this might be close. By might be close I mean, Purdue might lose by 20 instead of 50. Unfortunately this season is wasted, but hopefully this is a season we can look back to in four years and see how far we've come.

Purdue 10 O$U 63

 

Boilerdowd says:

An upset for this one is keeping it close...and by close I mean inside 35 points.

Here's why you should be worried:

-Urban Meyer won't play conservatively like UND

-aOSU has great D and O linemen

-Ohio State has the best overall offense in the league...Purdue has the worst, in those same categories. The point is, this isn't a young Braxton Miller offense or a veteran Terrell Pryor offense. If things go really badly, aOSU might have to bring in their backup QB...who led the nation for a few weeks in a few statistical categories.

-Purdue doesn't have a great DE presence anymore; our Boilers are near the bottom of the conference in sacks.

-On the other side, they allow more sacks than most of the conference.

Why aOSU should be worried:

-The recent history between the teams.

-Ross-Ade voodoo

This is one where logic and facts have to be regarded when you're making your guess...and recent history should be ignored.

I look at 2010 as a guide for this one...in fact, that's my prediction.

aOSU 49 Purdue 3
(FG at the end of the first half keeps it interesting; 35-3...aOSU cruises in the second half)

 

J says:

Purdue can't score right now, it doesn't appear. They're getting marginally better at stopping other teams from scoring, but at least some of that has to do with the fact that MSU's offense isn't all that great. We all know Purdue has only scored 7 points in their past two games (with that one TD being a literally last-minute TD in garbage time against Nebraska down 44-0). But think about this: Purdue has not taken a snap in the red zone since September 28. Holy hell.

Given those sorts of facts, I can see the woodshed-level beating that many (including those on this site) are predicting. Add that to how badly OSU pummelled PSU. Add in the fact that OSU knows they need to win impressively from here on in to have any shot at sniffing the national title picture. It does not bode well for Purdue. So what is in their favor?

Darrell Hazell  and Coach Freeman knowing a bit about OSU might help a smidge. But not much, since neither were on Meyer's staff. Danny Etling is a couple games wiser as a starting college QB. But his line is still very young and underperforming. And yes, Purdue has had an odd hold over OSU at Ross-Ade Stadium and there is at least some value to confidence. This isn't a road game at Wisconsin or Michigan, where Purdue has inexplicably wet itself for what feels like forever. No, this is a program that guys within the Purdue team have beaten and genuinely feel they can cause trouble for. Will that lead to a win? I don't see how. We didn't see it as possible in 2009, either, of course, but as Brian Neubert said on the Handsome Hour, that '09 team was a bowl team -- they just didn't go to a bowl. This team is....less of a bowl-caliber team, to put in mildly.

As noted by others, staying within the spread would actually be something of a victory. The first time in black helmets since a November 24, 1990 loss to IU will lead to a result similar to those seen in the '89-'90 campaigns. In fact, the last time Purdue wore black helmets versus Ohio State, they lost 42-2. So let's go with that, just for symmetry.

OSU 42, Purdue 2

 

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