Season Predicto Reviso
(Photo credit: Paul Sadler)
What better time to revisit the season predicto than just six weeks later? Normally, we need to wait until after the season to see how wrong everyone was about everything. But no need to wait! BS is here to happily be wrong, as has been our mantra for so long.
Harken back to the days of late August 2017 and note that nobody predicted Purdue would win at Missouri, let alone that it would be their most dominant performance less than halfway through the season.
What do the guys have to say if they have a do-over?
Purdue is 3-3 after six games (just like last year!). What will Purdue’s record be this season?
What he said Aug 31: 3-9.
What he’s saying now: When you say I predicted a 3-9 record, it sounds so tawdry. It’s really a mischaracterization of my vast confidence in this team and my belief that big things were imminent.
Alright, that was a lie. I thought that the lack of depth was simply too much to overcome. If you want an illustration of what I thought would happen, look at the Michigan game...but change jerseys to Missouri or Ohio. Sure, I didn’t know Mizzou was going to assume responsibility as awful black/gold college football team, but I didn’t think Purdue would be able to beat either of those teams with the players that I saw play during the Spring game.
I was wrong.
It didn’t take me long to publicly state how good I thought this team was. In fact, while still in the seats of Lucas Oil Stadium, I predicted a bowl via Twitter. I’m sticking by that...7-5 looks likely to me with an outside shot at 8-4 (I’m looking at you, Nebraska). A four-game winning streak is not out of the question, friends.
What he said Aug 31: 4-8, because Aneesh is back in Kool-Aid Drinking Mode babayyyyy.
What he’s saying now: Boy that Kool-Aid tastes even better than I thought, and this 3-3 feels infinitely better than last year’s 3-3. Purdue in Brohm’s Year 1 finishes 6-6, with Boiler fans buying bowl tickets for the first time in 5 years.
What he said Aug 31: Purdue's going to be 2-10 this season. Sorry folks, but as a well-known philosopher once said, a man's got to know his limitations, and Jeff Brohm is well aware of his current ones. The Boilers will likely not be favored in any game this season, which is unfortunate since they play Ohio U, Rutgers, and Illinois (btw, I told you so about Lovie). However, enough of those games are coin flips that Brohm's offense, even with a bunch of players not yet accustomed to it, will steal one or two of them.
What he’s saying now: KOOL-AID MAN! Purdue’s going to be 7-6 this season. Brohm dumped my earlier prediction in the trash Saturday and is on pace to have it doubled before the Boilers set foot in Ross-Ade again … and when they do, they’ll be favored for at least two of their final three games by Massey. Yep, the Nebraska game flipped, and I’d expect the Indiana game to flip as well; even if it doesn’t, Brohm and his staff have this team playing like they’re bowl-worthy. They’ll get to one, draw a mismatch against them, and come up short, but still, 7 wins is far better than anyone predicted, except for J’s alter ego.
What he said Aug 31: 4-8. (Man, do I want to say 7-5 just to rattle the rest of these guys.)
What he’s saying now: I just wish I had had the stones to actually call for a much better record than these guys...instead of just a regular amount of better, because make no mistake, I was the optimist of this crew. And now I’ll be the conservative and say 6-6. Do I look at the rest of the slate and see how they could actually any of them? Sure. But I’m not sure there’s an absolute gimme on the schedule, either. Maybe Rutgers and Illinois but you never know and Purdue is still learning how to win again. They’ve worn down in recent years in the second halves of seasons, too, so there’s something else to watch.
Who will their wins be against?
What he said Aug 31: Ohio, Rutgers, Illinois
What he’s saying now: Ohio, Mizzou, Minny, Rutgers, Illinois, Northwestern, IU
A 6-5 Purdue team versus a 6-5 IU team...you know like two bowl eligible foes facing off for the Bucket, hasn’t happened since 1979, I believe.
What he said Aug 31: Illinois and Rutgers, plus two of Ohio/Minnesota/Indiana. If I had to bet, it would be Ohio and Indiana.
What he’s saying now: TOSS ALL OF THOSE GRAB-BAG WINS IN THERE, AND TOSS IN THE DEMOLITION OF MIZZOU THAT WE’VE ALREADY BANKED. (In reality, I think the vital 6th win is either against a good Indiana or a floundering Maryland, with Maryland more likely.)
What he said Aug 31: Wins this season will be at Rutgers and at home against Illinois. (Can we talk about the decision to select Michigan as the homecoming game?) Chris Ash may well build Rutgers into a 4- or 5-win team, but the depth of the Big Tenteen East will likely keep the ceiling pretty low for the Scarlet Knights unless an inadequate coach is hired ... oh, who's the offensive coordinator at IU now? Anyway, it's nice to win a trophy game even if it is just the Cannon. fireloviesmith.com is probably still in the hands of an Illinois resident, so I'm sure you'll see it up shortly after the Boilers get that W.
What he’s saying now: Well, they already got their 3, and none of them were the ones I predicted, so I’ll keep those two and add Nebraska and Indiana. The Huskers have Big Tenteen Disease and are slowly falling into the morass that is the not-Wisconsin West; Indiana seems to have a decent squad, but has played pretty much terrible or great teams so far, with Virginia being the lone exception, and Purdue isn’t anything like Virginia.
What he said Aug 31: Ohio, Rutgers, Illinois, Indiana. Don’t @ me, as the kids say. Actually, I don’t think it will wind up being those four – but it will be four the hard way, like we’re playing craps.
What he’s saying now: They took Ohio already and of course handled Mizzou and Minny. I’ll keep the ones I have there to add to the list -- RU, Illinois and IU.
If you have to pick one, what’s your upset special?
What he said Aug 31: Minnesota
What he’s saying now: An upset is a game in which an underdog wins outright...just wanted to get the terminology down. Picking Purdue over Minnesota back in August was absolutely an upset prediction. That 9 win Minny team has/had sooooooo many better moving parts in place. Now that we’ve gotten past Minnesota, I have to dig around a bit.
I believe Purdue will be favored versus Rutgers, Nebraska, Illinois, Northwestern and IU. Winning at Camp Randall was as likely as my QuickCasts getting picked up by FS1...so I guess I’ll say Iowa? I mean, I’ll definitely say Iowa.
What he said Aug 31: Give me that Minnesota game, por favor. Obviously we all want Indiana, as the Hoosiers are on their longest Bucket winning streak in 70 years and that's plain nonsense. But let's dive a little deeper, shall we? Minnesota's new head coach is boat-rowin PJ Fleck, who we were all-in on when he was on Purdue's possible list to succeed Hazell...but now that he's officially the enemy we can all admit he's only got one oar in the water. Two first-year B10 head coaches squaring off, the first winnable conference game in Ross Ade, Purdue coming off a four-game gauntlet while the Gophers play four cupcakes? Gimme Minny.
What he’s saying now: PJ FLECK’S HEAD ON A SPIKE IS NOW PURDUE’S OFFICIAL LOGO. I’m so glad we got Minny.
What he said Aug 31: Is a rivalry game that doesn't involve Notre Dame ever really an upset? If so, I'm picking Indiana. Massey has the Hoosiers as a 2-to-1 favorite right now, but give Purdue's offense 11 games to get the lead out and wrap Indiana's offense in plastic for 11 games, and you never know what might happen. Sure would be nice to have two trophies at once ... and the Boilers haven't taken all three since 2004. (They took the Shillelagh from the Irish 9/29/2007, and had the Cannon and Bucket from 2006, so the span between that win and the November loss to IU is the last time they held all three.)
What he’s saying now: Shoot. Minnesota did fall, but the Boilers were favored anyway, so nyah-nyah to those guys. Of course, the same could well be true for Indiana; the Boilers are on track to give points for the Bucket game. So I guess I’ll take Iowa. The Hawkeyes under Ferentz have become a team that can keep any opponent in the game, and Purdue has become exactly the type of team to make you pay for that (see the Minnesota game, for example).
Unless it’s at night. Night games at Iowa bring out some weird stuff.
What he said Aug 31: Louisville. I said upset, you pansies. Minnesota won’t be all that good this year, no matter what their record tells you. They could be really strong the first half of the season but look at that schedule. The staff of Boiled Sports could go 5-1 against that. Louisville is heavily favored and could very easily not be as up for this game as Brohm will have Purdue. Plus, is there anyone on the schedule that Brohm would like to beat more than the ville?
What he’s saying now: FIrst of all, I’d like a little credit for calling MInnesota’s season back on Aug 31. Second, I’d like to bask in the glow of my pick of potentially upsetting Louisville while the rest of my brethren expected Purdue to lose by oceans of points. As for upsets the rest of the way, perhaps the greatest upset of all is the fact that Purdue may not be a significant underdog for the entire second half of the 2017 season.
How soon does Brohm take this team bowling?
What he said Aug 31: Year 2 (2018)
What he’s saying now: It’s going to be this calendar year as in Brohm’s first season, as in 2017...it’ll take 8 or 9 wins to get to a Jan 1 bowl...so I’m guessing The Good Guys will play a 13th game right around Christmas as an extra gift to us all.
What he said Aug 31: Woah there nelly, slow yer horses. After the 2019 season is probably the goal, right? But that seems so far away so let's be a little nuts and say Brohm leads Purdue to 2018 wins over Eastern Michigan, Boston College, Nebraska, Illinois, Minnesota, and Indiana and goes bowling after two seasons. ALL IN KOOL-AID LET'S GO PUT ME IN COACH I'M READY.
What he’s saying now: Miracle-worker Jeff Brohm is taking Purdue bowling in year 1, probably some time close to Christmas 2017. Even if Purdue finishes with only 5 wins, a 2018 bowl seems like a near-certainty. What a world.
What he said Aug 31: Brohm will need three years to get Purdue to a bowl. In 2019, Michigan and Ohio State drop off the schedule, and the non-conference schedule is pretty favorable (at Nevada, home to Vanderbilt and TCU). Indiana, Illinois and Maryland at home, and if they can take one from Nebraska/at Northwestern/Minnesota, that could even be a 7-win season.
What he’s saying now: Two months. Maybe less. Win 6 will be arriving this season, and that means a trip to some place none of us want to go to watch an opponent none of us are familiar with. But hell, I might go. How many chances will we have?
What he said Aug 31: Year 2 (2018). Fair or not, it’s gotta get going quick or people won’t be patient.
What he’s saying now: Brohm is the kind of coach that makes teams better immediately and he’ll take Purdue to a bowl this season.
What would have to happen this year for Brohm to be hired away from Purdue?
What he said Aug 31: Brohm might be pulled away from W. La La IF Purdue wins 10 games and Petrino gets in big trouble (with an intern/staffer or the NCAA).
What he’s saying now: I’m going to say EIGHT more wins and his buyout might not look like enough of a deterrent for Tennessee to ignore him. I can say that if Purdue gets 11 wins and Jeff Brohm gets hired away, his brother and Coach Holt stays...and I’ll still be smiling. Please note: none of this is going to happen. Tennessee will hire Troy State’s Brown, Butch Jones will go to Missouri, and Purdue fans will sleep soundly with visions of sugar plums and B1G Championship games dancing in our heads.
What he said Aug 31: I was on-record on the latest Handsome Hour podcast saying 7 wins gets him turning down offers...if one of those wins is somehow Louisville. Hell, if Purdue beats Louisville, the Cardinals might fire Petrino on the spot and bring their favorite son Brohm home for week 2. In reality, though, I do think he'd be getting ridiculous offers if Purdue somehow pulls off 8 wins with this tough schedule and minimal talent. You're telling me Notre Dame or Tennessee (or, hell, even Louisville if their season burns down) wouldn't fire their coaches right away, dive into their boatloads of money, and hire away a young offensive genius with professional QB pedigree who somehow coached *this* Purdue team to 8 wins?
What he’s saying now: This “6-8 wins and Brohm will be stolen” scenario doesn’t look as crazy now, does it? Louisville’s athletic department is in shambles, so that might get Petrino back to the SEC quickly. Who knows how appetizing that job will be for Brohm in 2018, but what I can guarantee is that programs like Notre Dame, Tennessee, LSU, Mizzou, and Texas A&M will indirectly see if Brohm has mutual interest.
What he said Aug 31: Football Outsiders says that Purdue has a 1-in-100 chance of going 6-6 this season, which would probably be 6-7 since that'd be a bowl season. They also say Northwestern has a 1-in-100 chance of heading to Indianapolis 12-0. If Brohm can pull off that kind of season, he's going to draw interest, but even so, it doesn't take much to earn a job-hopper title, and those guys generally don't work out so well. For him to actually be hired away? No chance. Brohm's buyout is $5.75M before December 5, when all good coaches are nabbed. That's contender money, and it's hard to imagine a contender taking Brohm based on a single season that will almost certainly not include a bowl game.
What he’s saying now: Well, that 1-in-100 shot is now an 81% chance, and no, Northwestern isn’t 12-0. Brohm’s going to draw interest, but again, I believe that buyout is going to keep all but the most ardent suitors from asking around, and they’re going to find other candidates who are cheaper to get.
I don’t expect he’ll be looking at Louisville for some time; probably best to let that business settle before getting involved.
What he said Aug 31: I think it’s almost impossible. He’d probably have to win ten games. So, like I said, impossible.
What he’s saying now: I maintain that he’d need somewhere near ten wins to have teams seriously pushing to pay his buyout and obtain Coach Brohm’s services. The attention this team is already getting could be a little nerve-wracking from this perspective but I don’t get the sense he’s looking to bounce real quick. I think Coach Brohm knows how much Purdue values winning and winning by tossing the ball around. He knows that’s part of the fabric here and I have to believe the idea of taking Purdue to Rose Bowl-like heights someday is as alluring as it was to Joe Tiller.
That said, if Louisville suddenly opens up, I’ll be officially nervous.
Check back after the season to see how wrong we were a second time!