2017 NCAA Viewing Guide: Round 2
Hey! The first round of games has wrapped up, and we still care! I mean, maybe your bracket doesn't look like you thought it would, but it still has the Good Guys active, and we get to do a few more bits on them this year. Michigan and Northwestern got the memo as well; we'll see whether or not I have to add a quick Michigan State section. (SPOILER: yes.) Like last time, all lines per kenpom.
Saturday, 9:40 PM: 4 Purdue (-1) vs 5 Iowa State, TBS
For most of the game on Thursday, it wasn't clear whether or not the Boilers had absorbed the wakeup call that Michigan administered in Indianapolis, and given recent history, most fans could be forgiven if they felt a sick, familiar feeling in the pits of the stomachs. Fortunately, the Good Guys closed out Vermont in style, earning a second-round matchup worthy of prime time against a team that had similar struggles - and a similar finish - in its own first-round game.
If the Boilers are going to make a run this year, they'll have to face teams like Iowa State the rest of the way, so now is as good a time as any to fix recurring issues like Isaac Haas' allergy to the rim. If Vincent the Greater plays the full game on Saturday, that will go a long way toward ensuring Purdue's first Sweet 16 appearance since 2010 ... but a contribution from Ryan Cline (0 shots, 1 turnover) would help as well. The Cyclones shot .629 from two against Nevada, but those points won't be nearly as easy to come by against Biggie and Haas - and if they can't keep Purdue off the perimeter, they may dig a hole deep enough that their own outside shooting can't get them out of.
Saturday, 2:40 PM: 8 Wisconsin vs 1 Villanova (-5), CBS
Wisconsin found their missing outside accuracy, shooting .419 from three (and taking 31 of 60 shots from outside the arc) in blowing past Virginia Tech; their reward is the defending champs, fresh off an uninspiring 20-point win over First Four winner Mount St. Mary's. As good as the Badgers looked, Virginia Tech wasn't nearly the challenge that Villanova will present; don't be surprised if the Wildcats open a comfortable 8-point lead and never let the Badgers back into the game.
Saturday, 5:15 PM: 8 Northwestern vs 1 Gonzaga (-11), CBS
Northwestern gets a slightly easier opponent, but is perhaps a bit less equipped for the task. The Wildcats seemed to have their first-ever NCAA victory locked up, then had to withstand a crazy finish to advance; like Wisconsin, they'll face a 1 seed who posted a disappointing 20-point win on Thursday. The Zags weren't particularly imposing in their win over South Dakota State, but they didn't need to be, and this team more than perhaps any other knows exactly what's expected of them this season. While it's entirely likely that the West Coast Champs won't play to their seed, it's unlikely they stumble in Salt Lake City.
Sunday, 12:10 PM: 7 Michigan vs 2 Louisville (-3), CBS
The Wolverines proved themselves capable of handling Oklahoma State's top-ranked offense ... but a couple of missed one-and-ones plus a handful of late threes put a bit of drama on Michigan's plate. Nonetheless, the committee will get the 2013 championship rematch they wanted, as the Cardinals overcame an unusually weak defensive performance against Jacksonville State to set up half of what should be a spectacular second-round card in Indianapolis, with Wichita State and Kentucky meeting in the other game.
Michigan managed 1.42 PPP against the Cowboys, despite OSU throwing different looks at them on nearly every possession in the first half. Louisville's defense is much better, but if Michigan continues to bomb away from three (16 for 29 in round 1), it won't matter what Pitino has in store for them.
Sunday, 5:15 PM: 9 Michigan State vs 1 Kansas (-7), CBS
Michigan State spotted Miami a 10-point lead, then essentially blew them out of the building. Their reward is a game against one of the least impressive coaches in recent tournament history. If MSU had a full complement of players, this would probably be a closer game; as it is, the absence of Eron Harris might well be the difference between an upset and a narrow Kansas win. Having said that, betting with Tom Izzo and against Bill Self is a strategy few can argue with.
