What Now - Purdue Loses Another Crossroads Classic Game to Butler

Here’s how this normally goes. The game ends, the post game goes up, describing the relative positives and negatives from the game that just transpired. Usually fairly fact-based (although I’ve been told that my post-games can get a little weird). Then maybe we’ll do a podcast mid-week and discuss with a greater mix of opinion and fact the events that transpired in the recent past. This semi-structure is one of the things that I appreciate about being a part of Boiled Sports. We’re not a content machine, cranking out empty calorie posts for the sake of flooding the market, and while we take seriously the need to address games and other major events, the real meat of our appeal as a website (if I can be bold enough to say that our site has appeal) is the podcast and other opinion-based content, where we really stretch our legs as five guys who are really fans-first.

So it may have made sense to put out a postgame summary yesterday afternoon and then waited to follow up with something less about the game itself and more about the greater context surrounding the loss at a later time in the week. But having been on the hook for the postgame this week, I decided to take a minute and think bigger picture at the moment. So while the Butler game is important context for the season, the specific result of that disastrous game is only important as a singular data point that contributes to a trend.

First, the sky is not falling. Purdue is still likely an NCAA Tournament team, and a top-6 conference team. They aren’t shuttering the program, Painter isn’t getting fired, and no (perhaps previous?) fan-favorites are getting benched.

And yet, this team is at a critical point in the season. This team has flexed its considerable defensive muscle in two wins against top-25 teams (neural court against VCU, at home against Virginia). It shouldn’t be understated that this defense is truly terrifying, and early returns suggest that a healthy Purdue team might have one of Painter’s best defenses during his tenure in West Lafayette. Twelve games in and Purdue has not allowed over 70 points in any contest. That is absolutely remarkable, enabled by aggressive on-ball defense, a terrific backstop/shot-alterer in Matt Haarms, and quality defensive rebounding at all positions. Nojel Eastern deserves particular recognition in that regard.

But that is the crux of the matter, as Purdue’s defensive qualities are neutered by their impotence on offense. A year removed from having one of the best offenses in the country, Purdue now struggles in all phases of its offense. Purdue fans jolt awake in the middle of the night, the words “and another layup rims out for the Boilermakers” ringing in their ears. Three point shooting, the strength of Matt Painter’s best teams, is awful. Eric Hunter Jr. and Sasha Stefanovic are both shooting a respectable 38% from distance, but then things get ugly. Out of regular three point shooters, the next three best shooters are Thompson, Wheeler, and Procter, who shoot 32%, 27%, and 27% from distance. That isn’t going to get it done.

As a team, Purdue is shooting 41% from the field, 66% from the free throw line, and 32% from the three point line. Last year that line was 44%, 73%, and 36%. Those numbers translate to a nearly 10 point per game difference in scoring.

Digging into the critical players on this team uncovers an even uglier story. Jahaad Proctor has hit 4 of 16 three point attempts since the Virginia game, 11-42 from the field as a whole. Nojel is 10 for 23 over that same period from the field. Aaron Wheeler is 4-17 from distance, and 5-23 (!!!) from the field as a whole. That isn’t going to get it done.

So what now? I predicted a mid-season swoon for this team but this wasn’t exactly what I had in mind. This team’s offensive struggles appear endemic to this team. There’s no Carsen Edwards walking out that tunnel.

Ultimately this may be beneficial to this team long-term. They will have to find a way to be successful that is more than just outscoring folks. Defense and smart play will be what carries this team forward. But they may have to suffer through more games like yesterday to ultimately get there.