It’s Time to Gamble – The Nevada Predicto

Welcome back to the world-famous, Boiled Sports Predicto. We’re adding a twist to the Predicto since the BS guys are just so good at accurately predicting things. So this year, we’ll add the point spread and over/under just to make it fun. Not because we encourage gambling. Just friendly wagering. (Depending on state.)

Purdue starts 2019 on the road at a bowl team. Nevada went 8-5 last year and won their bowl game, so you know they’re looking at this as a winnable game (tm, Scott Frost). Jeff Brohm is 0-2 in openers at Purdue. Both were exciting as hell (2017 loss in Indy vs Louisville and Rondale’s coming out party last year vs Northwestern), but I think we’d be happy with a boring win.

This year, Purdue begins the season as a double-digit favorite on the road. Holy hell. As of Monday, Purdue was -10 in this game (up to 11 as I type this – mercy). I wish there was an easy way to search pregame point spreads over the years (if you have a good resource for this please hit me up – boiledsports@gmail.com) but man, I cannot fathom the last time Purdue would have been such a road favorite. Our best guess is the ’99 season opener when Purdue went to UCF and laid waste to them. (However, that, of course, was a Drew Brees team that was ranked the entire season…not quite the same.)

It’ll be real simple… earlier in the week, Purdue was favored by 10 and the over/under was 58.5 points. And I’m setting the Rondale TD O/U at 1.5.

So the questions are this…

1. Will Purdue cover the -10 spread? (That is, will Purdue win by more than ten? On the road.)

2. Will Purdue and Nevada combine for OVER 58.5 points or UNDER 58.5 points?

3. Will Rondale Moore score OVER 1.5 touchdowns or UNDER 1.5 touchdowns?

4. Finally, give your fawning, adoring fans a final score predicto.

Let’s go.

1. Will Purdue cover the -10 spread? (That is, will Purdue win by more than ten? On the road.)

Michael: Yeah I think so. I think Purdue will be able to quick hit Nevada a couple times.

Aneesh: The only must-win game this season (Nevada, Illinois, Maryland, IU) that has me nervous is this Nevada opener. It's a super wonky season opener - on the road against a decent team that went bowling last year, at altitude, three time zones away, with a significant transitions as quarterback, running back, and offensive line. I think Nevada covers the +10 spread.

Boilerdowd: Sure, why not? Cover. While I think the offense will be a work in progress, and might struggle to find rhythm, big plays are a great equalizer. I look for the good guys to have a few of those.

Dave: Unlike some folks in the prediction world, I'm actually aware that Purdue already has a top-20 offense, and that was before the 2019 recruiting class takes the field. Nevada's defense isn't nearly the best Purdue will face this year, so this one is easy: Boilers to cover.

J Money: This swelling spread concerns me only because road favorites who were, you know, an under .500 team the year before should make anyone nervous. However, I do think they’re ready to go and I think Nevada is actually worse than their record indicated. Purdue to cover.

2. Will Purdue and Nevada combine for OVER 58.5 points or UNDER 58.5 points?

Michael: The under is the safe bet here I think. 58.5 points is a lot of points. I'll take the under.

Aneesh: OVER. Purdue had one of the most efficient and high-powered offenses in the country last year, averaging just under 32 points per game. While Elijah Sindelar is stepping in for Blough at QB, he's got some shiny promising wide receivers to boost his numbers.

Boilerdowd: Under...I like Purdue’s defense a lot...and think that, even at altitude, they’ll keep Nevada mostly in check.

Dave: Nevada's offense was terrible last season, so as one might expect, the 2019 version will see some new faces in the starting lineup. Some of the existing faces, with perhaps the exception of sophomore RB Toa Taua, have plenty of red in their 2018 statistical profile, so if these teams hit the over, it will likely be the Good Guys who make it happen. I disagree with Rabbit on this one: take the under.

J Money: There has been talk about both teams having respectable defenses. However, the first game of a season, with everybody pumped and nobody yet fully knowing their defensive assignments leads me to think we’ll either have a blowout or a shootout. I’ll take the over.

3. Will Rondale Moore have OVER 1.5 TDs or UNDER 1.5 TDs?

Michael: I think I'll take the over. I bet he gets two TDs.

Aneesh: UNDER. The new kids shine in this one as Moore is a decoy - Milton Wright, Amad Anderson, David Bell in the moments he gets after an injury slowed him this summer. And I think this game begins Brycen Hopkins stellar senior year. That being said, we might get a tasty Rondale special teams moment.

Boilerdowd: Over. He’ll have two...one receiving and a you choose (thinking Jet Sweep or misdirection run).

Dave: The Wolf Pack were prone to giving up big plays in passing situations (84th in marginal explosiveness on passing downs). Hello, over.

J Money: Rondale Moore torched good teams and bad teams last year. I think Nevada isn’t a very good team so I think there are a multitude of ways he can burn them, so I’ll take the over.

4. Finally, give your fawning, adoring fans a final score predicto.

Michael: 31-20 Purdue. A wonderful start to the season.

Aneesh: Gimme that good Purdue opening win, 35-28.

Boilerdowd: Good guys 35, Wolf Pack 22

Dave: The real question will be what has happened defensively to shore up some significant weak spots from last year's team. Nevada isn't Auburn, but they aren't Eastern Michigan either. I think the hits Purdue took last year from going with younger players rather than grad and JC transfers will pay off: Purdue, 37-20.

J Money: Gotta have it. Purdue 45, Nevada 21.