It's Time for Brohmvember Magic – The Iowa Predicto
(Photo credit: Reese Strickland, USA Today)
We’re two thirds of the way through the 2018 football season and we’re entering Jeff Brohm’s magical time of year. When satellite radio starts playing Christmas music (at noon on 11/1, dear god please help us all), Jeff Brohm gives the gift of football wins to his devoted following. As you’ve no doubt heard somewhere by now, Coach Brohm is 13-2 in the month of November as a college head football coach. So here we go. First up, our kinda sorta once most hated rival. However, now we’re in the same division so is it just normal hatred? I don’t even know anymore. I do know Purdue seems to have less trouble in Kinnick with the Hawkeyes than they do in Ross-Ade.
In related news, Purdue’s good luck charm, Tyler Trent, is planning to be back in attendance this weekend. Don’t forget to donate some money to the cancer research endowment in his name – BS readers appear to have donated somewhere around $4,000 as best our records of your screenshots can tell. We’ll be dumping our riches in there next and will keep you all posted on the total raised through your/our efforts. So thanks for that.
Onto the predictions.
Purdue had their winning streak stopped last week at MSU but one could easily argue that had they played even remotely as well as they had been to that point that the streak would have continued. So the question you need to ask is was that an aberration? Or a regression to the mean?
My head says Purdue will have a lot of trouble winning this game but I’ll go with my heart and believe in Brohmvember magic.
Here we go again, another game against a team with a crap offense and a solid defense. Two things favor the Boilers: one, it's at home and definitely not a night game at Kinnick, and two, last week was a wakeup call for the defensive coaching, at least from what Brohm said. Iowa's top target has a catch rate of 56% and gets 5.4 yards per target; none of their RBs average 5 yards a carry, and two of them are under 4; their QB is a junior who completes 56% of his passes. Since Purdue already knows you can throw to TEs, they should be all over the Ferentz offense.
The one weakness of the Iowa defense is their inability to stuff runs; if they take away the big plays like MSU basically did, the Boilers will need to commit to the run to keep possession. A steady diet of Knox, Jones, Blough and Moore should give the Good Guys the points they need to keep Iowa at bay. Those of you at home will likely hear 500 comments about the best TE tandem in the country, and while the Iowa guys are definitely good players, it would be great to see the other solid TE tandem put up some numbers, even if the EsPN announcers can't be bothered to acknowledge it. (Or maybe you'll get good ones who see and respond to the game itself.)
MSU showed how to beat Purdue. Basically throw a bunch of stuff at Blough, make him uncomfortable and capitalize on turnovers. Iowa will look to repeat that with a squad that’s maybe a tier (or a half-tier) below MSU. I’ll give Purdue a little benefit of the doubt here, and say they eek out a win.
My predicto last week was only 20% reverse-jinx. Purdue's win on Tyler Night was an emotional high for the program, and for pretty much everyone on the field (outside Rondale Moore and Jeff Brohm) probably the highest sports achievement of their life. It was really easy to imagine Purdue coming out a little flat, with Michigan State's defense not budging an inch. (It was a little harder to see a dude named Rocky Lombardi throw for over 300 yards, but life is a mystery sometimes.)
Like Dave said, Iowa resembles Michigan State, but boasts a more potent offense. Purdue will be at home, favored by 3 points, and we all know nobody comes into Ross Ade...but Iowa will have revenge on its mind after last year's drubbing. I think Iowa holds David Blough in check, Rondale breaks a few big plays, Knox (hopefully) gets more rushing attempts but won't be able to gather a rhythm, and the Real Historic And Not Manufactured Purdue-Iowa Rivalry Game ends with a two-game Boilermaker reality check.
It'll put some real pressure on Brohm's Boilers to grab wins against Minnesota and IU for bowl eligibility, but that's when Purdue plays its best. I still think Purdue ends up in a bowl, but slips up again this week.
Last week has my confidence somewhat shaken. The parts of this team that I thought to be vastly improved, failed a bit.
Purdue’s offense wasn’t dynamic.
The OLine couldn’t keep MSU’s front at bay.
Offensive play calling seemed vanilla.
Defensive play calling was passive.
Nobody picked anybody else up. When opportunities arose, they were generally followed by a failure. Momentum looks to have come to a screeching halt.
The good news is: Brohm’s record in November is great...and he seems to be genuinely annoyed, if not angry, at last week’s result.
I think we’ll know early which Purdue team is playing the game.
The train gets back on track: