Looking Back At Our 2009 Predictions

We probably should have done this post months ago, but we had plenty of other content to keep us busy then...plus since when do we do anything around here on any sort of schedule?

I thought it might be fun to look back at our Big Ten football predictions from last year and see how we did. I think college football is a lot easier to predict, but that could just be because I follow it so closely. Oh, and the NBA is easy to figure out, too, since it's rigged.

Anyway, here's what our off-the-cuff, half-assed analysis shook out last year and how we did.

Indiana -- BS Prediction: 3-9. Actual: 4-8.

One game off on the Hoosiers, who got off to their customary 3-0 start before stabbing their fans in the heart by dropping 7 of 8 to wrap things up.

Michigan -- BS Prediction: 5-7. Actual: 5-7.

We're so S-M-R-T! Michigan actually surprised a lot of people by starting 4-0, including a win over powerhouse (and ranked) Notre Dame, culminating with the maize and blue being ranked. Then they lost every legit game left on their schedule, only winning over Delaware State, who I think MGoBlog referred to as "Baby Seal U."

Illinois -- BS Prediction: 6-6. Actual: 3-9.

We were overly optimistic, it turns out, on the Illini, but they were just two years off a Rose Bowl season. We did say the "worst case" was 3-9, but expecting an experienced team to finish worse than the 6-6 we predicted was hard to envision, even for negative guys like us.

Iowa -- BS Prediction: 8-4. Actual: 10-2.

We weren't big believers in Stanzi, but we definitely knew Iowa was good. We missed the boat on just how good, though. But not by a lot.

Michigan State -- BS Prediction: 10-2. Actual: 6-6.

No, here's where we missed by a lot. For some reason, I fell in love with MSU football last year. Here's what I wrote:

MSU is going to be good. Really good. Barring John L. Smith flashbacks, this program is headed in the right direction. Toughest (and only significantly tough) game on the schedule is PSU, at home.

Man, I'm an idiot.

Minnesota -- BS Prediction: 4-8. Actual: 6-6.

Another one we missed on, but again, not by a whole lot. Minnesota is not very good and we stand by our assertion that they weren't very good last year, either. Purdue never should have lost to them, but that's the kind of thing Purdue football did in 2009.

Northwestern -- BS Prediction: 8-4. Actual: 8-4.

Right on the money again. Northwestern was so predictable from the very start, it was frightening. Here's what I said:

They'll win the games they should and they'll lose the games they should. Believe me, we know this kind of team when we see one. It's a Tiller Special, circa 2005-2008.

And were they ever, right up to their spectacularly entertaining -- yet futile -- bowl game effort.

Ohio State -- BS Prediction: 10-2. Actual: 10-2.

MAN, I'm tired of being right! OSU wasn't all that hard to predict, after all, since they seem to always come within a win or two of a truly epic season (ooh, burn!). And we all know where 50% of their losses (and 100% of their Big Ten losses) came from.

Penn State -- BS Prediction: 10-2. Actual: 10-2.

Penn State's another of those fairly easy-to-predict programs. They're going to win the games they should, they're going to take some tough ones, and they're going to find a way to agonize their fan base by dropping a close one or two. But as long as JoPa keeps winning, they'll let the old man "coach" there until he dies on the field.

Wisconsin -- BS Prediction: 8-4. Actual: 9-3.

Okay, so we missed by one game.

Boilermakers -- BS Prediction: 4-8. Actual: 5-7.

The official BS prediction going into the season was 4-8, and after the 1-5 start, that was beginning to look like an optimistic guess. But the boys made good on their season from that point forward and did us proud.

So, for those keeping score, that's four dead on and three within one game of being dead on. And only Michigan State as completely, nonsensically, way off.

Not bad, and definitely better than the fools on ESPN like Mark May.


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