2017 WNCAA Viewing Guide: Regional Semifinals
Four seconds. One possession. One shot to knock off top-seeded Notre Dame at home and advance to the Sweet 16. In a sense, the end of Sunday's game was a microcosm of Purdue's season: a horrible stretch that seemed to bury them, steady improvement that got them within reach, and then an improbable sequence that gave the Good Gals an opportunity nobody thought they'd have.
Unfortunately, the comparison didn't stop there. Ashley Morrissette got the ball in, but the offense didn't seem to execute the play correctly, and by the time she got it back, there was no way to get off any kind of reasonable shot. The Boilers took the lead twice in overtime, but each time the Irish answered, and three straight scoreless possessions put Purdue in a hole that they couldn't escape. As the Irish limp into Lexington without forward Brianna Turner, the Boilers return home with a 23-13 record and thoughts of what might have been.
There's still hope for the conference, though. While just 3 of the top 16 seeds in the women's bracket failed to advance to the second weekend, one of the teams that lost would have been Maryland's opponent Saturday, and another was knocked off at home by Ohio State - 4-seed Kentucky missed a chance to play four straight tournament home games when the Buckeyes eliminated them 82-68. Massey brings us lines for the two remaining games of interest.
Friday, 7:00 PM: 5 Ohio State vs 1 Notre Dame (-7), ESPN
Yep, this would have been Purdue-Ohio State, a rematch of the conference tournament semis that probably got the Boilers off the bubble and onto that 9 line. It also could have been Notre Dame-Kentucky, but instead the Irish get the regular-season co-champs, who are surprisingly significant underdogs despite Turner's injury (not noted by Massey, but I checked Vegas lines and if anything, they actually lean more heavily toward ND) and Ohio State's fine regular-season performance.
The Buckeyes are coming off that fine road performance that booted the Wildcats, limiting UK to 3 for 17 from behind the arc. Kelsey Mitchell needed 22 shot equivalents to get her 21 points, but an edge in turnovers (6 to 12) and shooting (.452 to .342) more than balanced out Ohio State's free-throw troubles (10 for 18).
Notre Dame struggled to get transition opportunities against the turnover-prone Boilers, but they ended up getting just enough of an edge on the boards to create the extra possessions that gave them a six-point win. It's hard to see that kind of performance getting them to the regional finals on Sunday, particularly with Turner out; the Irish backcourt shot very poorly against Purdue (Lindsay Allen 6-16, Marina Mabrey 7-15, Arike Ogunbowale 4-15), so if Notre Dame can't get the same success on the offensive glass that Kentucky had (28.3 OReb%), the Irish will be the first #1 seed out. (No, I don't think plucky 12-seed Quinnipiac will make it three wins in a row - Arizona State gave top-seeded South Carolina a scare in the second round, but the Gamecocks will be fine Friday afternoon.)
Saturday, 11:30 AM: 3 Maryland (-11) vs 10 Oregon, ESPN
When was the last time the same school had 2-seeds lose in the second round in both tournaments in the same year? Until I get my women's tournament database completed, for now let's just assume Duke is alone in that category. (For schadenfreude on the men's side, there's always diddukewin.com.) So instead of Maryland possibly being a slight underdog against the Blue Devils, they're a prohibitive favorite to become UConn Tournament Victim #4 on Monday in Bridgeport.
First up, though, is an Oregon team that edged 7-seed Temple by a point in their opener, then beat host Duke by 9 to extend their stay on the East Coast. Massey would point out that the Ducks are hardly a 10-seed, with Oregon #16 overall and possessing some quality wins: home vs. #10 UCLA, at #8 Washington, and then that road win at #14 Duke. Still, few non-UConn teams are playing as well as Maryland is right now, posting routs of 14-seed Bucknell and 6-seed West Virginia in their opening games. If we must acknowledge something good about the Big Tenteen's ill-considered expansion, it's the fact that it brought one of the best non-UConn teams in women's basketball to the conference. They may not stop the Huskies, but they'll almost certainly get the chance to try.
