So You’re Tellin’ Me There’s a Chance
(Gif credit: Boiled Sports. I just wanted to post it.)
Purdue’s NCAA hopes were on life support (at best) and the season had come down to a road game against a ranked opponent on their senior night, with that opponent being 14-1 at home this season and unbeaten in conference play. No problem!
Naturally, because of how weird this season is, Purdue went into the cornfields of Iowa and tossed a big, soaking wet blanket over the Hawkeyes’ senior night. Matt Painter continues his dominance of Angry Fran and the lesser black and gold. So what does this mean now? Does Purdue actually have a shot at the NCAA Tournament as they sit there with a 16-14 record? I mean, Tim Miles likes Purdue’s….uh…girth.
Tim Miles out here talkin’ ‘bout Purdue’s “girth.” (@CoachMiles, @BTNMikeHall) pic.twitter.com/zdGtby1VDU
— Boiled Sports (@BoiledSports) March 4, 2020
Fortunately, there’s a lot less “guessing” when it comes to determining how a team stacks up in 2020. Sure, the committee likely still uses the ol’ “eye test” in determining who is and is not a tournament team, but for now it’s worth going to the metrics side of things. For today’s discussion, class, let’s take a look at three bracketology indices, for lack of a better term. One is everybody’s favorite seasonal leprechaun, Joe Lunardi at ESPN, which is probably the best assessment of what the committee will actually do. Second is Torvik, a favorite of BS’s own Zlionsfan. Third is Haslametrics, run by Erik Haslam.
Lunardi currently has Purdue as one of his “next four out,” meaning Purdue really isn’t close. This feels right to me, personally, given Purdue’s overall record. It’s hard to imagine a ~17-win team getting in as an at-large, although I know it has happened a couple of times. At least Purdue is mentioned here, so if they rock Rutgers on Saturday and the chips fall right, maybe they’re into “First Four Out” territory. Honestly, that’s about the best you can hope for from Lunardi’s projection, I think, and then you have to hope the BTT actually matters (it usually doesn’t seem to) and that Purdue goes on a mini-run there. 18-19 wins would look a lot prettier.
Things get a little better looking when you move over to Torvik, which attempts to project where things will wind up – not as of today. He has Purdue as an 11-seed, likely playing in one of the “First Four Don’t You Dare Call Them Play-In” Games on Tues or Weds of tourney week. You don’t have to go far to remember the VCU team that went from that game to the Final Four, so there’s a shred to cling to there. Also, while it would be a skin of their teeth bid to the tourney, it would be a nice accomplishment after this wild season, plus seeing them on a night when there aren’t many other games on would also be fun. Just don’t get housed in that game, please.
Finally, moving to Haslam, Erik has Purdue 10th in his rankings. Haslam projects his tourney bracket from a “if the season ended today” perspective. And in that method, he has Purdue as an 11-seed, avoiding the play-in game. Again, yes, I’ll happily take it. For the six-seeds, he has Wisconsin, WVU, Michigan and Iowa so if this came to pass, it would surely be Painter vs his old friend Huggy Bear. Hell yes, let’s do it.
So that’s where things stand today. What’s it all mean? Nothing, really, except to say that it’s okay to have hope. Hope is a good thing. Maybe the best of things. And no good thing ever dies.
