#4 Purdue Wins at #17 Illinois in Double-OT Thriller
Feature image from @Boilerball
Purdue sports stress has, almost certainly, taken several months off my life. The number of stress-free Purdue sporting events will be few and far between. We are all well-versed in this, whether you’ve been a Purdue fan for a few months or a few years or a few decades.
And yet, they continue to reel me in, expecting easy stress-free wins after (as a random example) dominating on the road in the first half of a top-20 matchup.
What Happened?
Purdue went on the road, looked like the tougher team against what might be the Big Ten’s most rugged team, and beat Illinois 96-88 in a double-overtime thriller despite more than a few late-game miscues.
Illinois and Purdue are both vying for a more-open-than-expected Big Ten regular season title, alongside Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Ohio State.
(Be right back, taking a break to laugh hysterically at Michigan’s collapse.)
It’s a marquee game on a big national stage, a potentially huge statement game for both teams’ resumes, but Illinois needed it more. Their 6-0 Big Ten start was impressive, but came mostly against the bottom of the conference. This was their first real test, at home, favored by 1 point.
The biggest test for Purdue, following the Wisconsin loss, was Illinois’ physicality. Kofi Cockburn is a mountain of a man – while he’s not at the top of any NBA draft boards, he’s a fantastic physical rebounder, a solid free throw shooter for his size, and an agile and strong defender.
And yet, Purdue proved to be tougher, deeper, and more skilled, outlasting several of Illinois’ best punches (and more than a few self-inflicted wounds). Illinois is a really good team, and their wings Trent Frazier, Alfonso Plummer, and a returning Andre Curbelo almost took out Purdue.
We’ll get into details below, but Edey’s performance in regulation was tremendous, Trevion carried Purdue in the post through the overtimes, Ivey carried the superstar flag by continuously attacking the rim despite a cold-shooting night (and taking over in overtime), and we found Sasha Stefanovic’s mean streak again.
All of these are very good things. All of these are great indications that this team is clearly turning the corner after the Wisconsin loss. This Purdue team is still potent offensively but inconsistent defensively, talented but imperfect, accomplished but still growing, and (most promisingly) willing to make wholesale adjustments defensively after being repeatedly punched in the mouth by teams they should have beaten on paper.
This game took a week off my life, I’m sure of it. But if it all ends up in a great resume win, a few internalized lessons, and a better team in March, it’s definitely a ride worth taking.
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A few takeaways from this game, and the first half of this extremely promising Purdue season:
Don’t let the shooting numbers fool you – Jaden Ivey had a great game.
Ok, fine, he also missed what could have been the game-clinching free throw in regulation. Let’s move past that.
Today was the first time I’ve seen a complete superstar wing performance from Jaden Ivey. I’m not saying he was shooting lights-out (though he’s capable of it), I’m not saying he was the reason Purdue won (I’d put Edey and Sasha above him there).
But superstar wings find ways to impact the game when jumpers aren’t going in, and lead by example on the defensive end. Jaden, in that sense, had a tremendous night – he only shot 3/10, but managed to rack up 19 points on 13/15 shooting from the free throw line, taking over in overtime and steadying Purdue’s offense. He was active on defense, expending an endless amount of energy closing driving lanes.
Jaden is starting to tap into that multi-dimensional star level of play that everyone sees as his ceiling. This is another great thing for Purdue.
Kofi Cockburn is tough, but Zach Edey was better.
I’m constantly back-and-forth on the looming Edey offseason NBA decision – he’s got undeniable size and touch, but I’ve been skeptical that he’s got the strength to go against stronger NBA centers with lower centers-of-gravity.
This performance against Kofi Cockburn changed my mind on that.
Purdue’s gameplan wasn’t to pull Kofi out of the paint, but to go right at him and get him into foul trouble with a barrage of Edey and Williams in a battle of attrition. It turns out that Zach didn’t need any backup (until the overtimes). 20 points, 8 rebounds, 2 blocks on 9/14 shooting, entirely undeterred by the stronger Cockburn. This leads Zach’s NBA scouting tape, without a doubt.
(He ran out of gas after regulation, but that’s where Purdue having another All-American center is useful.)
Every single time Trevion Williams has the ball, Purdue needs to be constantly screening and cutting.
Let’s get this out of the way – Trevion Williams found his offensive touch in the overtimes, and Purdue needed him to step up when Edey was out of gas. Tre delivered, as he usually does.
But in regulation, Purdue was perfectly content to get him post-up touches…as the other four players just stood there and watched, like you and I sitting at home.
This is a roster full of smart, talented basketball players. They have to know that, while Tre is a wonderful post-up player, he might be the best passer in the country. His vision is what makes him so dominant and unique – his ability to find off-ball cutters through seemingly impossible cutting lanes gives him more room to operate in the post. Wing defenders become hesitant to cheat off their man by even a half step. Meanwhile, Tre’s defender is thrown off balance – protect the passing lanes, or stay square and defend the post-up?
This moment of hesitation by the entire defense is when an offensive set built around Williams thrives. It is entirely neutralized if there is no off-ball movement.
To my count, 8 of Trevion’s 12 missed shots were on isolated post-ups with no off-ball movement. A ton of them were early in the second half with Kofi on the bench, as Purdue should have extended their halftime lead.
But late in the game, he found a cutting Eric Hunter twice for easy layups, and had kick-out hockey assists for a pair of Stefanovic threes. Good things happen when Tre has the ball and there’s a ton of off-ball movement.
This Purdue team might be better built to beat non-Big Ten teams.
Early this season, when Purdue was racking up impressive wins against Villanova and North Carolina and dispatching of most opponents with ease, every Purdue player was clicking offensively. This gave us a real glimpse at how deep this Purdue roster ran, but it might have given both the fans and players unrealistic expectations of the role players’ consistency (everyone aside from Ivey, Edey, and Williams).
We all (including, it seems, the team itself) began to take the offensive production for granted, leading to what looked like a “we’ll just outscore them” mentality on the defensive end. Regardless of wins, this Purdue team was bad defensively before the new year, particularly against tough teams. It’s not a formula that works well in the Big Ten, when every team is happy to bring the game into the mud. The clearest example was against Wisconsin, where the pace was perfectly Badger-esque and a superstar effort from future NBA Lottery pick Johnny Davis stole a win at Mackey.
This, from a Matt Painter team, was frankly a little stunning.
Thankfully, since then, we’ve seen much more active defense against a Penn State team that’s better than you think (shoutout Micah Shrewsberry), shutting down a hapless Nebraska team featuring another NBA-level wing in Bryce McGowens, and in this top-20 showdown on the road against Illinois. Ivey, Stefanovic, Newman, and Hunter all looked engaged on the perimeter, Edey’s effort against Cockburn was tremendous. This is the formula for Purdue to steadily regain its defensive identity.
If the Big Ten slate sharpens Purdue on that end, while keeping superstar offensive weapons at the center of their offense, we could be in store for a special March/April. But this defensive improvement needs to continue.
Trevion’s defense is…baffling, at times.
He’s not going to have a great time in film study tomorrow.
Two possessions where it’s clear that the defensive call is for Trevion, like all Painter bigs of the past, to use his size and wingspan to take away the guard’s driving and passing lanes just long enough to allow the wing defender to recover, and then to get back on his man inside.
Tre is repeatedly caught ball-chasing, allowing one wide-open layup and on the other spurring an all-out defensive collapse. Pay attention on that second one to see the real cost of Tre ball-chasing and caught in the middle – Gillis and Newman have to rotate off, Sasha has to defend two passing lanes, and it leads to a wide-open three.
This Illinois game-tying possession almost killed me.
There was 15 seconds left. There was no need for Trevion to double team – just stay on your man and let the play implode by itself. There was no need for Jaden to trap and triple-team on top of that, because Purdue didn’t need the steal. Just a stop, and both Ivey and Williams decide trap – leading to two wide-open Illini, and an easy game-tying layup to force double overtime.
Again…film session won’t be fun tomorrow.
Danger: trading post-up buckets with opponents’ threes.
Early in the first half, early in the second half, and late in the game, Purdue had multiple leads that waned as Illinois struck fire from downtown. Alphonso Plummer, in particular, hit a few absurd shots (6 threes on the way to 24 points).
With early-season Purdue, Stefanovic and Isaiah Thompson and Brandon Newman and Mason Gillis would have all helped Purdue’s offense keep up. But since then, we’ve seen only a select few from that group produce with consistency.
Today, Sasha’s 5 threes and 22 points (and 8 rebounds!) alongside one particularly clutch Eric Hunter three saved Purdue.
But non-Sasha Boilers shot 30% from three. This isn’t good enough against dangerous teams like Illinois. Purdue needs more consistency from Sasha, and needs at least one of that group to produce. Newman is having a better stretch after being benched vs Wisconsin, and him finding his early-season form would go a long way to stabilizing Purdue’s offense against runs like this.
Illinois with Curbelo at full health will be a problem in the postseason.
Brad Underwood decided to go multiple stretches without his starting two centers.
This was a weird decision, particularly at the end of the first half as Zach Edey was cooking and Jaden Ivey began drawing fouls at the rim. This stretched Purdue’s lead from 4 to 11 by halftime. This isn’t a great strategy. Rooting for a Brad Underwood-coached team must be infuriating.
