Jaden Ivey's NBA Comparisons and Draft Destinations

This is a post from the perspective of a lifelong Purdue fan and diehard NBA fan who has been extremely smitten with the lovely Jaden Ivey since he committed to Purdue.

Feature image from Justin Casterline, AP.

Jaden will almost certainly be Purdue’s best NBA player since Glenn Robinson – a whirling dervish of athleticism, with prototypical NBA size and length at either guard position, and basketball smarts resulting from a lifetime of coaching by former professional baller and current Notre Dame Head Coach (and former Memphis Grizzlies Assistant Coach) Niele Ivey.

Jaden hasn’t even scratched the surface of how good he can be; as Caitlin Cooper and Mark Schindler at Indy Cornrows correctly summarized, ballhandling and playmaking (in addition to defensive consistency) could build on everything we saw during Jaden’s exhilarating two years at Purdue to make him as close to a surefire star guard as you can find in the 2022 NBA Draft.

NBA Comparisons:

The Ja Morant comparison has been ever-present, given Jaden’s frame and athleticism and playing style and haircut and their friendship and Niele’s history coaching Ja and the shared first two letters of their name. I get it. But honestly, while their styles have similarities, I think the differences are pretty stark. Dating back to his Murray State days, Ja has been a much more willing facilitator and prototypical point guard; Jaden, at La Lumiere and Purdue, has always been looking to score and slots in perfectly as an off-guard. Purdue fans are starkly aware of this – despite Jaden’s brilliance, Purdue could have greatly benefited from a more reliable primary ballhandler last season. Jaden is also much quieter than Ja, but also Ja might be the trash talkiest player in the NBA right now – Ja is an NBA ecosystem unto himself on and off the floor, while Jaden is much more likely to defer to others at the podium. Overall, while I understand the similarities, I’m not sure I’d make the comparison.

On the other hand, Philadelphia’s Tyrese Maxey (played at Kentucky) and fellow northern Indiana son of a professional basketball player Darius Garland on Cleveland (played at Vanderbilt) are a little bit better of prototypes for Jaden than Ja. Both are most comfortable as score-first off-guards, but Jaden is taller and bigger (and, dare I say it, more athletic). The Spurs’ Dejounte Murray (played at Washington) is better size comparison for Jaden, another combo guard who developed as an off-guard but has slowly developed his lead guard skillset (much like Garland). Minnesota’s Anthony Edwards (played at Georgia) and the Kentucky alum pair of OKC’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Sacramento’s DeAaron Fox have also gotten quick mentions alongside Jaden, given Edwards’ size and athleticism, Fox’s quickness, and SGA’s frame. While all of these young guards will be Jaden’s peers, measured against each other as they grow, it’s more evidence of the sheer talent level at guard in the pros than they are great comparisons for Ivey.

However, last year’s #2 overall pick by Houston, Jalen Green (via G-League Ignite) might not be a household name for non-NBA nerds, but to my eyes he’s the best currently active comparison for Jaden. Very similar height and length (Jaden is a little stockier), similar flashbulb athleticism, and a similar scoring-first approach as a combo guard. Jalen has a ways to go as a lead playmaker and defender, similar to Jaden. Both have the potential to be the backcourt bedrock of emerging young teams – or, if Houston dares…a bold experiment on the same team.

NBA veterans who have also gotten mentioned while talking through Jaden’s draft profile include Victor Oladipo and Donovan Mitchell and even Dwyane Wade (off-ball scorers with lead guard skills developed during their careers), & Russell Westbrook and Derrick Rose (raw athleticism and unlimited basketball work ethics). It’s always dangerous to make such lofty comparisons for a 20 year-old prospect who has yet to play a minute of professional basketball, but it speaks to the high level of expectations as Jaden enters the professional ranks.

NBA Fits:

This Thursday, June 23, Jaden will assuredly hear his name called sometime within the first six picks of the NBA Draft. Here’s a quick guide for his potential fits with each of the teams in this draft’s top 6, as well as a few teams who have been rumored to want to trade up to snag him:

Pick #1: Orlando Magic

Orlando striking NBA Draft Lottery gold likely ended all of the (very small) potential speculation of Jaden being this year’s top overall pick. While he’s not a bad fit alongside Jalen Suggs, and neither Cole Anthony nor Markelle Fultz have entrenched themselves as long-term building blocks, the Magic need a star at the wing or center spots. Both Jabari Smith and Chet Holmgren (Suggs’ high school teammate who followed him to Gonzaga) would be great picks, to the point where it’s very unlikely Jaden is even in the Magic’s thought process. If I had to bet, I’ll say the Magic take this year’s high-potential swing and draft Holmgren.

Pick #2: Oklahoma City Thunder

OKC at the second pick puts them in a great place – they can either sit back and draft whoever is left between Jabari Smith or Chet Holmgren, and both would be star-level potential within their excellent development system and promising young prospects. Imagining Holmgren next to Aleksej Pokusevski, OKC’s stringbean 7’ 190lb slenderman is hilarious, and that’s even before realizing that OKC might have a similarly great shot next year at another beanstalk 7’2” potential star Victor Wembanyama. Jabari Smith, who is this year’s safest shot at a perennial NBA All Star talent, would slot perfectly with OKC’s roster.

But ever since the night of the Draft Lottery, I’ve thought OKC was a stealth contender to draft Jaden. OKC’s front office are the same ones who invested the most in Russell Westbrook, working with him to develop from a ball of athleticism into a triple-double machine and league MVP. If they’re drafting at #2, I doubt they’d pick Jaden over either Jabari or Chet – but if they think they can slide back, let’s say to the #4 pick, and gain additional players or draft picks while still getting a talent like Jaden, it feels like exactly the move Sam Presti and this OKC front office would strongly consider. This is the type of stable organization with a track record of fantastic player development that would be a great landing spot for Jaden.

Pick #3: Houston Rockets

As discussed above, I think Jaden’s best NBA comparison is emerging Rockets guard (and last year’s #2 overall pick) Jalen Green. While it seems unlikely Houston will grab Jaden and double-down with the most athletic backcourt in recent NBA memory, the thought exercise is really fascinating. Would they hamper each other’s development, or would they open an entirely new ceiling of fast-break drive-and-kick offenses? It’s much more likely that they take whoever is still available from the Jabari Smith – Chet Holmgren – Paolo Banchero trio, but imaging a backcourt of Jalen and Jaden together is amazing.

Pick #4: Sacramento Kings

NBA success is dependent on many things – raw tools (height / wingspan / athleticism), work ethic, playing style fitting with NBA trends – but honestly a lot of it is draft luck. And when I say luck, I mean not ending up with a tire-fire of an organization who hasn’t shown the ability to patiently build a core of young exciting players or stick with a single organizational roster building/development philosophy for longer than 18 months at a time.

Only the league’s most elite historic talents can transcend being drafted by an organization as unstable as the Sacramento Kings. Though they seem to be slowly, maybe on their way towards their first playoff appearance in 16 years, it was a move that sacrificed patience – they traded away their best young player in Tyrese Haliburton for established veteran Domantas Sabonis, and blamed it on a self-created roster glut of young backcourt players.

I want Jaden to succeed. I don’t want him drafted by a fundamentally unstable organization, paired in the backcourt with two similar players (DeAaron Fox and Davion Mitchell), and trusting the Sacramento Kings to make the right decisions to further his career. No thanks.

The Kings front office know that their jobs are on the line, and know that owner Vivek Ranadive is prioritizing a 2023 playoff appearance over everything else. They’re a prime contender to not do the right thing and draft Best Player Available, but rather try to trade with OKC into the top 2 and grab either Jabari Smith or Chet Holmgren (the best trade decision they could make), or bypass Jaden’s potential talent in favor of win-now talent via a trade (say, for a Wizards package around Kyle Kuzma, lol) or draft (NBA readymade Keegan Murray). I am curious to see how it works out for the Kings, but I do not want this future for Jaden Ivey whatsoever.

Pick #5: Detroit Pistons

As a Pacers fan, I have to sigh extremely heavily. I think this is Jaden’s floor in the draft. Sam Vecenie has long held that this is Jaden’s ideal fit, and I’d have to agree – imagining Jaden’s electric fast break athleticism alongside primary ballhandler Cade Cunningham’s decision making brilliance is a basketball nerd’s dream, and it wouldn’t be too far from Jaden’s northern Indiana home. Detroit is slowly forming into a future perennial contender in the Eastern Conference with their recent picks (Cunningham, Saddiq Bey, Isaiah Stewart) and potential trade chip veterans (Jerami Grant). They’ve also just signed Carsen Edwards to a two-year contract, only further torturing all Purdue + Pacers fans.

The Pistons have elite young talent, have stability in the coaching and front office ranks, have been patiently dedicated to a singular rebuilding philosophy for multiple years, and have a perfectly Jaden Ivey-shaped missing piece on their roster. This would be an (unfortunately for me) excellent landing spot for Ivey. Some other picks could make sense here as well (Keegan Murray, Shaedon Sharpe, Bennedict Mathurin), but if any team were trying to draft Jaden it seems like trading into a spot above the Pistons is their best shot.

Pick #6: Indiana Pacers

The dream for all Purdue fans in central Indiana. The Pacers already had a quick era built around a electric scoring guard who starred at an Indiana public university – why not try it again, except with the better basketball school?

If you were to take a look at Indiana’s backcourt roster – built around emerging star lead guard Tyrese Haliburton, promising rising rookie Chris Duarte, and veterans Malcolm Brogdon and Buddy Hield – it would look like the better fit would be a big wing (like Keegan Murray, AJ Griffin, Bennedict Mathurin, or Shaedon Sharpe). But it sounds like the Pacers are finally entertaining a full reset around a young promising core. Brogdon, center Myles Turner, and recent acquisition Hield have been subjects of nonstop trade chatter over the last year – it seems likely that they all might have played their last games in Pacers jerseys.

From that perspective, Jaden Ivey is as perfect a fit alongside Haliburton as he would be with Cade Cunningham – as a local, electric off-guard to pair alongside a steady big lead guard, with endless potential on both sides of the ball and a great organization for patient development. He’d also finally give Pacers fans a reason to fully buy-in to a youthful rebuild, and maybe finally its first star that wouldn’t demand a trade once they hit their primes. (I say this, knowing full well the Basketball Gods love personally torturing me.) It would be unlikely that Jaden slips all the way to #6 – the Pacers would have to package a few players and picks, and maybe a third team, to move up to #4 to keep Jaden in Indiana. Never say never.

Trade Candidate: New York Knicks

This one is for resident BS Knicks’ fan J Money. The Knicks have been trying to land their first young electric franchise lead guard for what seems like decades, celebrating a bit too loudly after a perfectly fine comeback season from Derrick Rose two years ago and absolutely losing their minds (but creating the perfect Knicks fan video) after an opening night win against Boston last season. The Jaden trade-up rumors, almost assuredly coming from Knicks fans in the media and NBA Twitter rather than grounded in reality, rely on the Kings being satisfied with a trade package of the #11 pick plus a combination of Julius Randle, Immanuel Quickley, Obi Toppin, or Quentin Grimes. Without trading promising wing RJ Barrett, it seems like a pipe-dream. Sorry, J.

Trade Candidate: Washington Wizards

It looks like Washington will give guard Bradley Beal all the money in the world to be their centerpiece, rather than trading him and resetting in a rebuild around young talent. But that buys them time to take a big swing in the draft, at the cost of a few of their perfectly fine role players. Cashing in Kyle Kuzma, along with young recent draftees Deni Avidija or Rui Hachimura, makes sense along these lines – they’d just have to get Sacramento to agree on the other side of the trade. For Jaden’s sake, the fit with Beal makes a ton of sense – two brilliant score-first backcourt players, Beal more deliberate with his decision making in the halfcourt while Jaden creating the first exciting fast break threat Washington has seen since John Wall’s prime. For the limited time they were together and healthy, Wall and Beal were electric – this would be Washington’s attempt to recreate that, while hedging against an eventual Beal trade demand by drafting their future primary building block.

Prediction:

Jaden Ivey looks phenomenal in his draft day suit, gets Purdue some excellent draft day press, and is sitting next to his #1 fan Niele Ivey as his dreams of being drafted into the NBA become a reality within the first six picks of the 2022 NBA Draft. Jaden is a star in the making at the NBA level, and it will be thrilling to see him develop into an NBA star.

Just, please, not the Kings.